Efficient parametric inference for stochastic biological systems with measured variability

Stochastic systems in biology often exhibit substantial variability within and between cells. This variability, as well as having dramatic functional consequences, provides information about the underlying details of the system's behaviour. It is often desirable to infer properties of the parameters governing such systems given experimental observations of the mean and variance of observed quantities. In some circumstances, analytic forms for the likelihood of these observations allow very efficient inference: we present these forms and demonstrate their usage. When likelihood functions are unavailable or difficult to calculate, we show that an implementation of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful tool for parametric inference in these systems. However, the calculations required to apply ABC to these systems can also be computationally expensive, relying on repeated stochastic simulations. We propose an ABC approach that cheaply eliminates unimportant regions of parameter space, by addressing computationally simple mean behaviour before explicitly simulating the more computationally demanding variance behaviour. We show that this approach leads to a substantial increase in speed when applied to synthetic and experimental datasets.Comment: 11 pages, 4 fig

Endless love: On the termination of a playground number game

A simple and popular childhood game, `LOVES' or the `Love Calculator', involves an iterated rule applied to a string of digits and gives rise to surprisingly rich behaviour. Traditionally, players' names are used to set the initial conditions for an instance of the game: its behaviour for an exhaustive set of pairings of popular UK childrens' names, and for more general initial conditions, is examined. Convergence to a fixed outcome (the desired result) is not guaranteed, even for some plausible first name pairings. No pairs of top-50 common first names exhibit non-convergence, suggesting that it is rare in the playground; however, including surnames makes non-convergence more likely due to higher letter counts (for example, `Reese Witherspoon LOVES Calvin Harris'). Different game keywords (including from different languages) are also considered. An estimate for non-convergence propensity is derived: if the sum $m$ of digits in a string of length $w$ obeys $m > 18/(3/2)^{w-4}$, convergence is less likely. Pairs of top UK names with pairs of `O's and several `L's (for example, Chloe and Joseph, or Brooke and Scarlett) often attain high scores. When considering individual names playing with a range of partners, those with no `LOVES' letters score lowest, and names with intermediate (not simply the highest) letter counts often perform best, with Connor and Evie averaging the highest scores when played with other UK top names.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figure

Efficient vasculature investment in tissues can be determined without global information

Cells are the fundamental building blocks of organs and tissues. Information and mass flow through cellular contacts in these structures is vital for the orchestration of organ function. Constraints imposed by packing and cell immobility limit intercellular communication, particularly as organs and organisms scale up to greater sizes. In order to transcend transport limitations, delivery systems including vascular and respiratory systems evolved to facilitate the movement of matter and information. The construction of these delivery systems has an associated cost, as vascular elements do not perform the metabolic functions of the organs they are part of. This study investigates a fundamental trade-off in vascularization in multicellular tissues: the reduction of path lengths for communication versus the cost associated with producing vasculature. Biologically realistic generative models, using multicellular templates of different dimensionalities, revealed a limited advantage to the vascularization of two-dimensional tissues. Strikingly, scale-free improvements in transport efficiency can be achieved even in the absence of global knowledge of tissue organization. A point of diminishing returns in the investment of additional vascular tissue to the increased reduction of path length in 2.5- and three-dimensional tissues was identified. Applying this theory to experimentally determined biological tissue structures, we show the possibility of a co-dependency between the method used to limit path length and the organization of cells it acts upon. These results provide insight as to why tissues are or are not vascularized in nature, the robustness of developmental generative mechanisms and the extent to which vasculature is advantageous in the support of organ function

Explicit tracking of uncertainty increases the power of quantitative rule-of-thumb reasoning in cell biology

"Back-of-the-envelope" or "rule-of-thumb" calculations involving rough estimates of quantities play a central scientific role in developing intuition about the structure and behaviour of physical systems, for example in so-called `Fermi problems' in the physical sciences. Such calculations can be used to powerfully and quantitatively reason about biological systems, particularly at the interface between physics and biology. However, substantial uncertainties are often associated with values in cell biology, and performing calculations without taking this uncertainty into account may limit the extent to which results can be interpreted for a given problem. We present a means to facilitate such calculations where uncertainties are explicitly tracked through the line of reasoning, and introduce a `probabilistic calculator' called Caladis, a web tool freely available at www.caladis.org, designed to perform this tracking. This approach allows users to perform more statistically robust calculations in cell biology despite having uncertain values, and to identify which quantities need to be measured more precisely in order to make confident statements, facilitating efficient experimental design. We illustrate the use of our tool for tracking uncertainty in several example biological calculations, showing that the results yield powerful and interpretable statistics on the quantities of interest. We also demonstrate that the outcomes of calculations may differ from point estimates when uncertainty is accurately tracked. An integral link between Caladis and the Bionumbers repository of biological quantities further facilitates the straightforward location, selection, and use of a wealth of experimental data in cell biological calculations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Modelling the Self-Assembly of Virus Capsids

We use computer simulations to study a model, first proposed by Wales [1], for the reversible and monodisperse self-assembly of simple icosahedral virus capsid structures. The success and efficiency of assembly as a function of thermodynamic and geometric factors can be qualitatively related to the potential energy landscape structure of the assembling system. Even though the model is strongly coarse-grained, it exhibits a number of features also observed in experiments, such as sigmoidal assembly dynamics, hysteresis in capsid formation and numerous kinetic traps. We also investigate the effect of macromolecular crowding on the assembly dynamics. Crowding agents generally reduce capsid yields at optimal conditions for non-crowded assembly, but may increase yields for parameter regimes away from the optimum. Finally, we generalize the model to a larger triangulation number T = 3, and observe more complex assembly dynamics than that seen for the original T = 1 model.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figure

A tractable genotype-phenotype map for the self-assembly of protein quaternary structure

The mapping between biological genotypes and phenotypes is central to the study of biological evolution. Here we introduce a rich, intuitive, and biologically realistic genotype-phenotype (GP) map, that serves as a model of self-assembling biological structures, such as protein complexes, and remains computationally and analytically tractable. Our GP map arises naturally from the self-assembly of polyomino structures on a 2D lattice and exhibits a number of properties: $\textit{redundancy}$ (genotypes vastly outnumber phenotypes), $\textit{phenotype bias}$ (genotypic redundancy varies greatly between phenotypes), $\textit{genotype component disconnectivity}$ (phenotypes consist of disconnected mutational networks) and $\textit{shape space covering}$ (most phenotypes can be reached in a small number of mutations). We also show that the mutational robustness of phenotypes scales very roughly logarithmically with phenotype redundancy and is positively correlated with phenotypic evolvability. Although our GP map describes the assembly of disconnected objects, it shares many properties with other popular GP maps for connected units, such as models for RNA secondary structure or the HP lattice model for protein tertiary structure. The remarkable fact that these important properties similarly emerge from such different models suggests the possibility that universal features underlie a much wider class of biologically realistic GP maps.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Evolutionary Dynamics in a Simple Model of Self-Assembly

We investigate the evolutionary dynamics of an idealised model for the robust self-assembly of two-dimensional structures called polyominoes. The model includes rules that encode interactions between sets of square tiles that drive the self-assembly process. The relationship between the model's rule set and its resulting self-assembled structure can be viewed as a genotype-phenotype map and incorporated into a genetic algorithm. The rule sets evolve under selection for specified target structures. The corresponding, complex fitness landscape generates rich evolutionary dynamics as a function of parameters such as the population size, search space size, mutation rate, and method of recombination. Furthermore, these systems are simple enough that in some cases the associated model genome space can be completely characterised, shedding light on how the evolutionary dynamics depends on the detailed structure of the fitness landscape. Finally, we apply the model to study the emergence of the preference for dihedral over cyclic symmetry observed for homomeric protein tetramers